Indian policymakers are almost alone, alongside the United States, in seeking a hard and multi-sectoral global decoupling from China in the expectation that it will boost their economies, observes Mihir S Sharma.
On the heels of the National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5), which revealed new demographic trajectories including the replacement level of fertility, the government will, on Monday, unveil extensive economic data related to health and the broader economy. New data will relate to per capita spending on health and proportions of the GDP to health spending. Health ministry sources said the NFHS-5 marked some areas for celebration but also some markers that should cause concern.
From the Sensex basket, Power Grid, Asian Paints, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, NTPC, Sun Pharma, Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC Bank, Tata Consultancy Services and JSW Steel were among the major gainers. Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank, Wipro, ICICI Bank and IndusInd Bank were among the laggards.
Inflation is on a declining trend, Eco Survey stated.
The external environment has worsened further. While the Finnish economy entered into a recession, Swedish economic growth also dipped. The Finnish gross domestic product (GDP) dropped 0.6 per cent in October-December, 2022. It was the second quarter of negative growth, which is a technical definition of recession.
The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slipped from 57.5 in September to 55.5 in October, the slowest rate of expansion since February. The October PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 28th straight month.
While 44-year-old Sunak was at the BAPS Shri Swaminarayan Mandir in Neasden on Sunday to promise to keep trying to "make the community proud", 61-year-old Starmer chose another north London Swaminarayan Temple in Kingsbury on Friday to reiterate his commitment to building a "strategic partnership with India".
The Survey has expressed concern at rising prices and advised measures to contain inflation while sustaining high growth.
'The response from the government using words like malicious, deliberate, etc is diverting from the real issue.' 'The indicators related to young children such as stunting or child mortality are a reflection of the social development in the country.' 'That's how we have to look at it and not ignore the issue by denying the data.'
The bad loans of public sector banks were at 4.4 per cent in March 2014 compared with 2.09 per cent in 2008-09, it said, adding, the gross NPA increased by almost four times from March 2010 (Rs 59,972 crore or Rs 599.72 billion) to March 2014 (Rs 2,04,249 crore or Rs 2,042.49 billion).
Among the Sensex firms, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, Nestle, HCL Technologies, HDFC Bank and Maruti were the major laggards. IndusInd Bank, ITC, Bharti Airtel and State Bank of India were among the winners.
'The government should act proactively to instil confidence in the private investors, and also boost the purchasing power of people directly or indirectly by ensuring minimum wages.'
Buoyed by healthy farm output and narrowing current account deficit, India is the seventh most economically confident country in the world, a study by global research firm Ipsos has said.
India's food inflation was the second lowest among all emerging economies in the 2010.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday accused the Congress again of planning to redistribute people's property if it is voted to power, but stopped short of saying that the wealth would go to Muslims.
According to the IHS Markit India Business Outlook, predictions of softer activity growth underpin the downward revisions of profit outlook, subdued hiring plans and relatively muted capital expenditure.
'Modi knows the people here are opposed to this project, but he is using the might of government to push this port down our throats.'
Generative AI (GenAI) has the potential to add a cumulative $1.2-1.5 trillion to India's GDP over the next seven years, according to a report by EY. The report titled 'AIdea of India: Generative AI's potential to accelerate India's digital transformation' says that in 2029-30 alone, GenAI can contribute an additional $359-438 billion to India's GDP. The report said that around 69 per cent of the overall impact of GenAI on India's GDP is expected to be derived from sectors such as business services (including IT, legal, consulting, rental of machinery and equipment, and others), financial services, education, retail, and healthcare.
Executives in India and China are the most optimistic about sustainability of economic recovery, with six out of ten people reposing their faith on the turnaround in the economy, says a survey.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday raised its forecast for India's economic growth to 6.3 per cent for current fiscal year 2023-24 from 6 per cent it had predicted previously. This is primarily because of a stronger outturn in the first quarter and near-term momentum. The growth forecast compares with 7.2 per cent GDP expansion in FY23. In the previous fiscal year (FY22), the economy had grown 9.1 per cent.
The major focus of this year's Economic Survey was on pushing economic growth, which has been projected by the Central Statistical Organisation at 5 per cent for this fiscal, sharply lower than the original estimate of 7.6 per cent (+/- 0.25 per cent).
It would be a difficult task for the Indian economy to reach the $5-trillion mark a year before the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projection of 2026-27. Pankaj Chaudhary, minister of state for finance, said in the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday that the government is taking steps to make the country a $5-trillion economy at a date earlier than the IMF's projection. In that context, it would not be difficult to meet the projection in the third quarter of FY27.
India's manufacturing sector activity remained broadly flat in June as new orders declined for the first time in over four years and power cuts and fragile economic conditions weighed on the sector's performance, an HSBC survey said.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will have to do a tight-rope walk between staying fiscally prudent and general public expectations of lower taxes and a wider social security net, while at the same time firing the engines of the economy before general elections. Sitharaman will on Wednesday present her fifth straight Budget at a time when the economy is slowing due to global headwinds and specific sectors need attention. In the run-up to the Budget presentation, expectations are rife that she may tweak income-tax slabs to provide relief to the middle class and increase spending on the poor through programmes such as the rural job scheme while ramping up financial incentives for local manufacturing.
Well, if Economic Survey of Bihar for 2006-07 is to believed, the impoverished state of Bihar has recorded a GDP of 16 per cent!
"Contradicting the emerging narrative, Indian-Americans remain committed to the Democratic Party. Nearly three-quarters of registered Indian-American voters intend to support Joe Biden this Fall, compared to just 22 per cent for Donald Trump," it said.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday retained India's growth forecast for the current fiscal at 6.3 per cent citing economic resilience despite tighter monetary policy and exports weakness, but upped year-end inflation projection on El Nino threat. The Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal on strong services sector activity and robust demand. "The Indian economy continues to show resilience despite tighter monetary policy and weakness in exports, with growth outpacing other countries in the region," Fitch said, while projecting 6.3 per cent growth for current fiscal (April-March), and 6.5 per cent for next fiscal.
Arvind Subramanian, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, was informally recommended to the post by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.
The services sector growth in India rose to a 13-year high in September on sharp increase in new business amid strong demand conditions, and job numbers continued to increase as overall business mood improved, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 60.1 in August to 61 in September, signalling a sharp upturn in output. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said describing India's recovery as 'K-shaped' was wrong as both rural and urban economies were recovering, albeit at different paces. Speaking to reporters at the Finance Ministry, Nageswaran said the gross domestic product (GDP) growth print for the recent October-December quarter (Q3FY23) will likely be revised upwards. "The notion of using the letter 'K' to denote urban and rural is somewhat wrong because it is almost as if one is growing and one is contracting. "I would say one segment's slope is more positive, and the other one slope is less positive but it is positive," Nageswaran said.
The findings of the report showed consumer spending falling for the first time in over four decades in 2017-18. The government has, however, termed it a "draft" report, reports Somesh Jha.
Various global and domestic factors had a sizable impact on the performance of the Indian markets
Retirement planning and secondary sources of income have become key financial priorities for Indians, as they look to prepare for higher inflation, health concerns, and economic slowdown risks. PGIM India Mutual Fund's Retirement Readiness Survey shows that at present 67 per cent Indians have their retirement plan in place, compared to 49 per cent in 2020. "The pandemic was probably the factor making people realise the importance of saving and investing, leading to an increase in people planning for it.
On the contrary, India, along with Pakistan and Egypt, figures near the bottom of a table of nations in a survey that ranks them in terms of prosperity. The three countries are better than only Zimbabwe.
India's economic growth could fall to 5.5 per cent this fiscal before seeing gradual recovery next year, a RBI-sponsored survey said.
Sitharaman's Budget missed deficit target for the third year in a row, pushing shortfall to 3.8 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal as compared to 3.3 per cent previously planned.
'What's sad today is that there are so many people who cannot find work, not because the country is devoid of that opportunity, but because we are not doing enough in the country.'
India is losing ground to China when it comes to global exports of commercial services.
Capital markets can be used as a major source for meeting funding requirements of the country.
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